Market analysis · July 2026
Hillsborough County housing market
A flat single-family median and condo closings down a sixth — the clearest reading in the register because the reporting is complete.
Florida, July 2026
| Measure | Figure | Change and period |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price, single-family | $425,000 | +3.7% year over year |
| Median sale price, condo and townhouse | $295,000 | unchanged year over year |
| Closed sales, single-family | 23,870 | +5.1% year over year |
| Closed sales, condo and townhouse | 8,194 | +11% year over year |
| Months' supply, single-family | 4.5 months | no change figure published |
| Months' supply, condo and townhouse | 7.8 months | no change figure published |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.76% | no change figure published week ending 10 Sept. 2026 |
One thing that is widely reported and is not what this data shows
The common claim: Florida condo inventory has surged because of the post-Surfside reserve requirements.
What these figures show: In July 2026, condo active inventory fell year over year in every South Florida county in this register. Condo weakness appears in median price, days to contract and months of supply, not in a rise in listings.
A driver that is documented and dated: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminated the limited review option for many condo loans on 3 Aug. 2026, and many existing Miami condominium buildings lack FHA approval.
Hillsborough County housing market, July 2026
A flat single-family median and condo closings down a sixth — the clearest reading in the register because the reporting is complete.
Association MLS data. These figures come from the Realtor association that reports this county, which is the strongest public source available for it.
| Measure | Figure | Change and period |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price, single-family | $430,000 | 0.0% year over year July 2026 |
| Median sale price, condo and townhouse | $280,000 | -1.7% year over year July 2026 |
| Closed sales, single-family | 1,358 | +1.3% year over year July 2026 |
| Closed sales, condo and townhouse | 322 | -16.6% year over year July 2026 |
| Median days to contract, single-family | 34 days | 0.0% year over year July 2026 |
| Median days to contract, condo and townhouse | 55 days | +3.8% year over year July 2026 |
| Percent of original list price, single-family | 96.7% | +0.3% year over year July 2026 |
| Percent of original list price, condo and townhouse | 95.1% | +0.7% year over year July 2026 |
| New listings, single-family | 1,674 | -2.3% year over year July 2026 |
| New pending sales, single-family | 1,197 | -10.7% year over year July 2026 |
| New pending sales, condo and townhouse | 301 | -13.0% year over year July 2026 |
| Active inventory, single-family | 4,710 | -7.6% year over year July 2026 |
| Active inventory, condo and townhouse | 1,895 | -4.1% year over year July 2026 |
| Months' supply, single-family | 3.9 months | -7.1% year over year July 2026 |
| Months' supply, condo and townhouse | 5.9 months | 0.0% year over year July 2026 |
Insurance
| Measure | Figure | Change and period |
|---|---|---|
| Citizens personal lines average premium | $2,539 | 0.0% year over year effective 1 June 2026 Citizens personal lines average premium. Citizens is the state-backed insurer of last resort; this is not a countywide market average. |
| Citizens HO-3 multiperil average premium | $2,939 | +0.7% year over year effective 1 June 2026 Citizens HO-3 multiperil average premium. |
What the numbers actually say
New pending single-family sales fell 10.7% year over year while closed sales rose 1.3%. Pending sales lead closings by roughly a month or two, so those two figures describe different points in time and the pending number is the forward-looking one.
What the analysts say
The last couple of months of data give us hope that it's not just mortgage rates that have been driving demand in Florida, but also pent-up demand from buyers who no longer wish to sit out waiting for affordability in the Sunshine State to return to 2019 levels.
Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months.
Works Cited
- “2026 Rate Kit.” Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, Dec. 2025, www.citizensfla.com/documents/20702/35182283/2026+Rate+Kit.pdf. Accessed 10 Sept. 2026.
- “Fla.'s Housing Market: Closed Sales and New Pending Sales Rise in July.” Florida Realtors, 17 Aug. 2026, www.floridarealtors.org/newsroom/flas-housing-market-closed-sales-and-new-pending-sales-rise-july. Accessed 10 Sept. 2026.
- “Hillsborough County Monthly Statistics: July 2026.” Suncoast Tampa Association of REALTORS®, Aug. 2026, pinellasrealtor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Hillsborough-STAR-Monthly-Statistics-July-2026.pdf. Accessed 10 Sept. 2026.
- “NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Decrease in July.” National Association of REALTORS®, 11 Aug. 2026, www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-decrease-in-july. Accessed 10 Sept. 2026.
Figures describe July 2026 and were compiled on 2026-09-10. Florida Realtors releases August 2026 county data on 16 September 2026. Market data is historical reporting, not a forecast, and nothing here is a prediction about what any individual property will sell for. Jacob Campbell is a Florida real estate sales associate and is not an attorney, CPA, lender, appraiser, home inspector or insurance agent.
Working in Hillsborough County
I am a licensed Florida sales associate and can work anywhere in the state, but Hillsborough County is not one of the markets I am in week to week. For a transaction here I would either work it directly or place you with an agent who is already in this market through The Keyes Company, depending on which actually serves you better — and I will tell you which I think it is.