For the past few years the Florida market has felt like a roller coaster: bidding wars, very low inventory, prices climbing faster than anyone could keep up with, and then a slowdown. The question I hear most is when things will feel normal again. My read of the published 2026 data is that the market is stabilising rather than crashing. Below is what the reports actually say, with dates, followed by my opinion on what it means. None of it is a prediction of what any particular home will do.
Prices and sales: steady, not in free fall
Houwzer, summarising Florida Realtors’ June 2026 figures, reported a statewide single-family median sale price of $432,000, up 4.9 percent year over year, with closed sales up for a tenth straight month (Houwzer). Florida Realtors’ July 2026 report then showed sales up year over year for the eleventh straight month: single-family closed sales up just over 5 percent and condo-townhouse sales up 11 percent, with new pending single-family sales up nearly 2.5 percent (Florida Realtors, “Florida Home Sales”).
Florida Realtors chief economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said in that July report that the gains suggest “it’s not just mortgage rates that have been driving demand in Florida, but also pent-up demand from buyers who no longer wish to sit out” (Florida Realtors, “Florida Home Sales”). In its 2026 forecast, published in 2025, Florida Realtors reported that O’Connor anticipated a relatively stable 2026 with modest price appreciation and growing inventory (Florida Realtors, “2026 Forecast”). That is a dated forecast from a named economist, not a promise.
The balance has shifted
Houwzer described single-family supply in mid-2026 at about 4.5 months statewide, roughly the line between a seller’s and a buyer’s market, with a typical home taking around 43 days to go under contract (Houwzer). Freddie Mac’s survey had the 30-year fixed rate at 6.55 percent in mid-July 2026 (Freddie Mac). Houwzer’s summary of the result: buyers are still there and prices are still up, but buyers are no longer desperate and have choices (Houwzer).
Inventory signals are mixed depending on the month and segment you look at. FA-Mag reported in January 2026 that Florida inventory had stopped rising the way it did in prior years (FA-Mag), and Florida Realtors’ July 2026 report showed single-family inventory down almost 13.5 percent and condo-townhouse inventory down just under 13 percent year over year (Florida Realtors, “Florida Home Sales”). Condos are their own market; see the condo notes in the FAQ before assuming a statewide figure applies to a particular building.
Population growth
Florida Realtors reported a projection of roughly 306,000 net new residents a year through 2030 (Florida Realtors, “Florida’s Growth Forecast”). USA Today and Jacksonville.com reported in August 2026 that more than 200,000 people from other states switched their driver’s licences to Florida in the first half of 2026 (USA Today; Jacksonville.com). Florida Politics, citing Florida TaxWatch, reported a projection of the state’s population rising from 23.8 million in 2026 to just over 26 million by 2035, with net migration gradually slowing (Florida Politics). Projections are projections, but population growth is one reason many economists expect demand to stay steady.
South Florida high-end sales in Q2 2026
RISMedia reported on The Keyes Company and Illustrated Properties’ Q2 2026 luxury market report (The Keyes Company is my brokerage). It reported high-end single-family sales up 20.1 percent year over year to 8,013 across the region, high-end condo sales up 23.5 percent, and an average single-family price up 7.2 percent to $2.63 million. For Palm Beach County it reported high-end single-family sales up 24.2 percent to 2,534, with the average price up 4.6 percent to $2.89 million (RISMedia). Christina Pappas, president of Keyes/Illustrated Properties, described the demand as “a continuation of a decade-long pattern, not a new headline-driven rush” (RISMedia). These are one quarter’s figures for one price segment.
What this could mean for buyers (my opinion)
A more balanced market generally means more time to look, more room to negotiate repairs and terms, and fewer offers written in a panic. I would not try to time the market. The right time to buy is when the numbers work for your budget and plans, after you have run your own payment at today’s rate, read the HOA or condo documents, and checked flood zone and insurance costs.
What this could mean for sellers (my opinion)
In a slower, pickier market, preparation and pricing matter more than they did a few years ago. Houwzer’s summary puts it bluntly: this is not the market where you list high and collect three offers over the weekend (Houwzer). Pricing from current comparable sales, presenting the home well and being realistic about negotiation tend to matter most. Every property is different, and your own pricing should come from a comparative market analysis, not a statewide median. Current county-level figures are on the market page.
The bottom line
The 2026 reports I have read describe a Florida market that is normalising. Prices are broadly steady, sales have been rising, and the frenzy has cooled. That is my reading of published data, not a forecast of future prices or returns. Talk to a lender about rates and to a licensed professional about your specific situation before you act.