Speaking at the 2026 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings in Washington, D.C., in June 2026, National Association of REALTORS® chief economist Lawrence Yun said he expected home sales to improve in the second half of 2026, provided inventory and housing supply continued to expand (National Association of REALTORS®). It was a forecast with conditions attached, and those conditions are the part worth paying attention to. The figures below are national; Florida and individual Palm Beach County communities can move differently.
What the forecast said
- Sales and prices. NAR’s forecast at the time called for existing-home sales to rise 4 percent in 2026 and the national median price to rise 4 percent, with mortgage rates averaging 6.5 percent for the year (Scotsman Guide). That was a downgrade from Yun’s earlier forecast of a 14 percent increase in sales, reflecting affordability pressure and higher rates (Scotsman Guide).
- The economy. Yun said he expected the U.S. to avoid a recession in 2026, citing business investment in AI and data centers, with unemployment staying under 5 percent (National Association of REALTORS®).
- Mortgage demand. NAR noted that the Mortgage Bankers Association had reported mortgage applications up around 31 percent from a year earlier in the latest week (National Association of REALTORS®).
- Price context. Yun put the national median price at around $430,000 and noted it was about $90,000 in 1990 (National Association of REALTORS®).
Forecasts are revised often, as the drop from 14 percent to 4 percent shows. Treat them as one input, not a plan, and check how they have been updated since.
An uneven market
NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz described the market at the same event as “wonky”: “You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other” (National Association of REALTORS®). She also observed that much of the buying was being done by people who had bought before or had substantial wealth (National Association of REALTORS®).
That unevenness is why local data matters more than national headlines. Two similar homes can have very different outcomes depending on price, condition and timing. It is also where an agent earns their keep: pricing against the closest recent sales, knowing the paperwork and disclosure obligations, and having seen similar situations before.
My own view
What follows is my personal opinion, not NAR’s, Dr. Yun’s or Dr. Lautz’s. It is not investment or financial advice, and it is not a prediction of where prices will go.
As of August 2026, I saw signs that the market was stabilizing after a long period of falling sales volume and slowing price growth driven by higher rates. More inventory and more seller concessions had given buyers some negotiating room. I do not know whether that will last or how prices will move from here, and nobody else does either.
What I tell buyers is that trying to time the bottom of a market is rarely the deciding factor. Whether you can comfortably afford the full monthly cost, how long you plan to stay, and how stable your income is matter more. Every local market is different. Run your own numbers, get a real lender quote, talk to advisors you trust, and make the decision that fits your goals. My market page has more local context.