What is on the ballot
In June 2026 the Florida Legislature approved a property tax reduction package that goes to voters in November. (NBC Miami, 2026) It needs 60% approval to pass. (Bridges, 2026) If it does, it is one of the most aggressive property tax relief measures any state has attempted.
The mechanics:
- Exempts the first $150,000 of a primary residence’s assessed value from non-school property taxes from January 1, 2027, rising to $250,000 in 2028 (Bridges, 2026)
- Leaves school taxes untouched, so education funding is insulated
- Tightens the annual assessment growth cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%
- Would take roughly 60% of homesteaded owners off the non-school property tax rolls in year one, and around 92% once the exemption reaches $250,000 (Call, 2026)
The current homestead exemption is $50,000. Tripling it, then quintupling it, is not a trim. It removes most homesteaded property from a major part of the tax base.
What it looks like on a real house
Take a homesteaded property assessed at $300,000.
Today, with the $50,000 exemption, you are taxed on $250,000. Under the 2027 threshold you would be taxed on $150,000 — a 40% cut to the taxable base. By 2028, at the $250,000 exemption, you would be taxed on $50,000 — an 80% cut. A home assessed at $250,000 or below is effectively exempt from non-school property tax by 2028, and that covers a meaningful share of Florida’s housing stock.
Two limits worth keeping in front of you. This is the non-school portion only — the school levy still applies to the full assessed value. And it applies to a homesteaded primary residence. Investment property, second homes and rentals get the tighter assessment cap and nothing else.
Where the money goes instead
This is the part of the story that gets less attention than it deserves, and it is the part that determines whether you actually pay less.
The Revenue Estimating Conference put local government losses at $4.4 billion in year one, climbing toward $13.3 billion annually. (Call, 2026) That is not an abstraction. It is police, fire, parks, libraries, road maintenance and stormwater.
Former State Senator Jeff Brandes framed the problem more precisely than anyone else in the debate:
Government rarely disappears. It rearranges itself. (Brandes, 2026)
His follow-up question is the one to hold onto: if property taxes fall but assessments and mandatory fees rise, have Floridians reduced the cost of government, or just changed how they pay for it? As he put it — the tax bill may get smaller, and the receipt may get longer.
The specific mechanisms already exist and do not require a vote: fire assessments, stormwater fees, communication services taxes, utility charges, and Community Development District assessments. None of them are reduced by a homestead exemption. Several are flat charges that do not scale with the value of your home.
The HOA and CDD problem
There is a second-order effect that matters more to buyers than the headline number.
When a municipality is short of maintenance budget, one of the first things it stops doing is accepting new private infrastructure (USA Today, 2026) — roads, parks, stormwater systems inside new communities. Those assets do not stop needing maintenance. The cost simply lands on the homeowners’ association or the CDD instead.
The practical result for an owner is a smaller annual tax bill and a larger monthly HOA assessment. There is a fair argument that this is more honest: HOA fees are visible, itemised and tied to services you actually use. But it is not the same thing as paying less, and a homeowner who budgeted around the tax cut can be caught out by an assessment increase arriving in the same window.
What local officials are saying
The warnings are coming from both parties, which is worth noting.
Manatee County Commissioner George Kruse, a Republican, suggested municipalities could end up charging “a fee for literally everything” (Kruse, 2026) — parks, boat launches, bus services — and flagged the effect on residents least able to absorb per-use charges, along with pressure on police salaries and stretched equipment replacement cycles.
Delray Beach Mayor Tom Carney has said residents could see parks and recreation fees alongside public safety or fire levies. Ocean Ridge has already moved, raising its communication services tax on phones, internet and devices from 2% to 5.22%. (Pacenti, 2026)
Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman called the plan a political stunt that threatens to bankrupt local communities, framing the choice as funding police departments or keeping schools open. (Call, 2026)
You can discount the political framing on both sides and the arithmetic still stands: $13.3 billion a year has to come from somewhere, or something stops being funded. (S&P Global Ratings, 2026)
Who benefits most, and who should look twice
Clearest winners: buyers purchasing a primary residence now who will homestead it, particularly in the $250,000–$400,000 range where the exemption erases most or all of the non-school liability. You buy at today’s assessed value and the exemption grows underneath you.
Should look twice: long-tenured homesteaded owners. If you have held your homestead for fifteen years, Save Our Homes has kept your assessed value far below market, so your bill is already low relative to the house. You have less to gain from a bigger exemption — and flat fees and assessments, which are not reduced by any exemption, would hit you at the same rate as everyone else. It is entirely possible for that group to come out behind.
Largely unaffected: investors and second-home owners. The tighter 5% assessment cap slows future increases, which is real but modest, and there is no exemption. If anything, the risk of higher non-ad valorem charges lands on this group without the offsetting benefit.
My read
This is my opinion, not the position of NAR or any of the officials quoted above, and it is not tax or investment advice.
I think this is a reasonable window for someone buying a Florida primary residence they intend to homestead, and I think that holds whether or not the measure passes.
If it fails, Florida is still unusually tax-advantaged — no state income tax, the existing $50,000 exemption, Save Our Homes, and a market with more inventory and more seller flexibility than buyers had three years ago. Nothing about the current setup gets worse.
If it passes, a home you homestead today could see most of its non-school property tax liability disappear within two years, and that compounds for as long as you hold it.
What I would not do is treat the tax cut as the reason to buy. The risks are real: the market could soften further, rates could stay where they are, local services could deteriorate in ways that affect resale, and fees or HOA assessments could absorb a good portion of the savings. And if you are already a long-tenured homesteaded owner, run your own numbers before you assume this is good news for you specifically — for that group it may not be.
The decision should rest on the house, your timeline and your finances. The tax change is a tailwind, not a thesis.
What to do before November
- If you are buying: confirm the property qualifies for homestead and that you can establish Florida residency — the exemption is worthless to you otherwise. Ask specifically about CDD assessments and HOA dues, and about any fee increases the municipality has already adopted.
- If you already own: check your current assessed value against market. If Save Our Homes has you well below market, model what a shift toward flat fees would do to you before assuming a net gain.
- Either way: your county property appraiser confirms your exemption status, your assessed value and your portability. That office, not a forecast, is where the number that applies to you comes from.